Inflation Cooling: September Rate Cut Ahead?

The Core Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) Index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, often considered more comprehensive than the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to its broader scope and adjustment for changes in consumer behavior. The latest Core PCE data for May shows a year-over-year increase of 2.6% and remains flat month-over-month, supporting the recent trend of cooling inflation. This trend could bolster the possibility of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as lower inflation reduces the urgency to maintain higher interest rates.

Inflation expectations significantly influence actual inflation by affecting consumer and business behavior. With surveys indicating a decrease in short- and mid-term inflation expectations, this trend could help keep actual inflation in check, reinforcing the argument for a September rate cut.