The Fed’s Attention Turns to Elevated Jobs Report
By: Movement Staff
October 6, 2023
This week saw market volatility continue as investors grapple with the uncertain economic outlook. Remarkably, Congress managed to avert a shutdown in the eleventh hour last week, allowing crucial economic data reports to proceed until at least November 17. However, this short-term funding deal came at a cost – Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted. This has created a significant leadership vacuum in Washington and raised concerns about the government's ability to conduct business on Capitol Hill. Markets are sure to keep one eye focused on that November deadline.
Additionally, Markets are digesting comments made by Fed governors on the speaking circuit. There has been increasingly hawkish commentary, especially regarding the potential of an additional rate hike by the end of the year. While this was not entirely unexpected, given that at the FOMC meeting in September we saw 12 members project another hike by year's end, the increasing rhetoric supporting those projections does have markets increasing caution that these projections come to fruition.
Turning to economic data this week, we saw a huge upside surprise in the JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday which pushed yields higher. We also got another softer than expected Initial jobless claims, showing us once again the U.S. labor market is still resilient despite current headwinds.
The main event was the Non-Farm Payrolls report that was released this morning. Economists projected 170k jobs added in September (lower than August), but this report revealed a whopping 336,000 jobs added. This elevated number will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s policy as they evaluate whether their previous actions are achieving the desired effect.
Additionally, Markets are digesting comments made by Fed governors on the speaking circuit. There has been increasingly hawkish commentary, especially regarding the potential of an additional rate hike by the end of the year. While this was not entirely unexpected, given that at the FOMC meeting in September we saw 12 members project another hike by year's end, the increasing rhetoric supporting those projections does have markets increasing caution that these projections come to fruition.
Turning to economic data this week, we saw a huge upside surprise in the JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday which pushed yields higher. We also got another softer than expected Initial jobless claims, showing us once again the U.S. labor market is still resilient despite current headwinds.
The main event was the Non-Farm Payrolls report that was released this morning. Economists projected 170k jobs added in September (lower than August), but this report revealed a whopping 336,000 jobs added. This elevated number will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s policy as they evaluate whether their previous actions are achieving the desired effect.
