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A rate hike is unlikely in September

By: Movement Team
September 8, 2023

The holiday-shortened week has given the markets a brief break from significant economic data. However, that doesn't mean they took the entire week off. Earlier this week, ISM (Institute of Supply Management) data came in hotter than expected, indicating that despite recent reports signaling economic slowdowns, there are still pockets of resilience. This is further supported by Initial Jobless Claims, which once again came in softer than expected. Fed Governors are maintaining their hawkish rhetoric on the speaking circuit, and the markets are eagerly listening for additional forward guidance. A September pause is almost certain from the market's point of view. However, there is a growing bet on an additional hike in November, with markets now pricing in about a 50/50 chance of a 0.25% increase on November's horizon.

Outside the US, investors are keeping a close eye on China, where concerns persist in both the real estate market as well as the broader economy. While these concerns may seem distant, they have had a direct impact on volatility in bond markets and are starting to gain more attention from a broader market audience.

The week will round out with a few more speeches from Fed Governors, which hopefully will provide additional clarity on the Fed's policy outlook. Hopefully the holiday provided some much-needed rest and relaxation as we prepare for the busy week ahead.
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Author: Movement Team

About Movement Mortgage, LLC (“Movement”)

Movement is not just a mortgage company – they’re an Impact Lender and force for positive change. With more than 4,000 teammates across all 50 states, they reinvest the majority of our profits back into the communities they serve. Movement is the 10th ranked top-producing residential mortgage company in the U.S., funding more than $20 billion in residential mortgages annually. The company has contributed nearly $400 million to the Movement Foundation since 2012, funding the Movement Schools network, affordable housing projects and global outreach efforts. For more information on Movement and Impact Lending, visit .