International conflict spurs volatility in mortgage interest rates
An extremely volatile end of February bled into the first few days of March as Russia escalated its attack on Ukraine. The stock market whipped back and forth the first week of March, reacting to quickly rising oil prices, Russia's continued assault on Ukraine and the government's latest data on the labor market in America.
The 10-year Treasury note yield reversed its upward course and started to fall quickly, dragging mortgage interest rates down with it. On March 1 the 10-year yield dropped to 1.68% and then nearly surpassed 1.9% just two days later. Fluctuations like these mean it is more important than ever to listen to the advice of an expert when you are locking in a rate for your home loan. Markets are moving swiftly and gambling on holding out for a better interest rate could end up biting you.
The ups and downs of the market pushed the latest Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate average down to 3.78% for the past week. It is highly unlikely that rates will continue to move down especially as the Federal Reserve prepares for its first interest rate hike of the year.
Fed chairman Jerome Powell noted in some prepared remarks for Congress the "tremendous hardship" presented by Russia's invasion of Ukraine saying "The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, and we will be monitoring the situation closely." Powell did not back off from comments that he sees a quarter-percentage-point increase in the near future for the benchmark overnight lending rate. Powell is feeling pressure between inflation running hotter than the 2% goal and the increased economic sensitivity to what's happening in Europe.
Keep in mind that the overnight lending rate does not directly affect mortgage interest rates. The interest rate controlled by the Fed directly affects how much banks have to pay to borrow money. That cost is passed down to consumers in the form of credit card interest rates, personal loan rates and more.
JOBS REPORTS
Powell referenced a tight labor market in his remarks which was born out in Friday's February jobs report from the Labor Department. The data shows an impressive 678,000 jobs were added with the unemployment rate moving from 4.0% to 3.8%. Economists had forecast an increase of just 440,000 for the month of February with the unemployment rate coming in at 3.9%.
Private companies added a better-than-expected 475,000 jobs in February according to ADP's latest report. Perhaps the biggest news from the private payroll space was ADP's drastic revision of January's numbers. Initially, ADP reported a loss of 301,000 jobs in January. The revised number shows a gain of 509,000. One economist told Reuters that this proves ADP is "more noise than signal." The reason ADP revised up the numbers was because the report was not in line with that of the Bureau of Labor Statistics which reported the private sector hired 444,000 workers in January.
