In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has gained confidence that inflation is on track to hit its 2% target. However, attention has now shifted to the labor market as a key factor in determining future interest rate decisions. Last week’s surprising payroll report highlighted this shift, with nonfarm payroll growth surging to +254k—well above economists’ expectations of +150k. Additionally, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, lower than the anticipated 4.2%.

This stronger-than-expected labor market data has caused bond yields to rise and shifted market expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Two weeks ago, markets were pricing in 70 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2024 and 187 basis points by the end of 2025. However, with the labor market showing resilience, these expectations have now decreased to 44 basis points by the end of 2024 and 147 by the end of 2025.

Looking ahead, the next Federal Reserve meeting in early November will be crucial. While markets had initially anticipated a 50-basis-point rate cut, those expectations have now diminished. A 25-basis-point cut is seen as the more likely outcome.

The Fed’s balancing act between managing inflation and supporting labor market stability will continue to drive market movements, with each new piece of economic data adding complexity to the outlook.