The housing headlines this spring heading into summer have been contradictory enough to make your head spin. Asking prices are falling at the steepest rate in years. Rates are higher than they were two months ago. And yet pending sales are rising, inventory is building, and buyers are showing up. The full picture is more useful than any single number, and right now it tilts toward buyers more than it has in a while. Here is what the data shows:

Where the strongest deals are: motivated sellers

Some sellers are working harder than others to close, and homebuilders lead that group. For the 14th month in a row, at least 60% of builders reported using sales incentives to move homes, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. A finished home that sits costs a builder money every day, which is why their offers, especially incentives that lower your monthly payment, can beat what a typical resale seller will do. We cover how those work in this blog about builder incentives.

Asking prices are down, but homes aren't losing value

The market is pricing itself realistically, which means you're less likely to overpay in a bidding war than buyers were a couple of years ago.

In May, the median list price fell 2.4% year over year, the steepest annual drop in Realtor.com's records since 2017. That might sound like home values are dropping, but they aren't. Sellers are simply pricing more realistically from the start rather than listing high and hoping.

The proof is in what homes are actually selling for. The median existing-home sale price reached $417,700 in April, up 0.9% from a year earlier and rising for the 34th month in a row.

Homes are holding their value. What's changed is that sellers are no longer overpricing, which means buyers have more room to negotiate without waiting for a price cut.

Rates are higher week to week, but lower year over year

The 30-year fixed averaged 6.53% in late May, according to Freddie Mac. Rates have drifted up lately as inflation ran hotter, but step back and the trend favors you: a year ago that same rate sat near 6.89%.

Lower rates and slower price growth have lifted buying power. NAR reports that affordability improved across every region this spring, with incomes rising faster than home prices. The combination of lower year-over-year rates and incomes rising faster than home prices means that for many buyers, their home-buying budget this year gives them more purchasing power than last year.

More homes, and more time to decide

Inventory keeps building. There were 1.47 million existing homes for sale in April, a 4.4-month supply and the most room buyers have had in a while. Homes are also sitting a bit longer, a median of 32 days on market against 29 a year ago.

That shift works in your favor. You have more time to compare and far less pressure to decide overnight, which gives you real standing to negotiate on price or terms.

What it means for your search

The headlines tell part of the story. Several conditions buyers waited years for are lining up at once, even if rates aren't at an "ideal" level.

The best next step is to see what your payment could be on a specific home. Fill out the form below and we can walk through that with you and see what options you have.