The threat of another government shutdown appears to be over, but President Trump is set to declare a national emergency in order to get the remaining funding for his border wall. While a national emergency sounds like it will cause great harm to the economy, it's mainly noise.

More accurate indicators of economic growth were released this week and that data shows a much more positive outlook than headlines would have you believe.

No clear signs of recession

Fears of a recession have calmed as many analysts see the US economy as slowing, but not declining. The CEO of Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, said "There is no question the momentum of growth in the United States has slowed. That said, economic activity in the United States is still chugging along pretty well."

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed a similar sentiment earlier this week when he said he doesn't feel the likelihood of a recession "is at all elevated." The caveat to that statement was Powell saying he doesn't feel like many rural places have seen the benefits of a strong economy.

This is an important stance to note considering what's happening with the slowing economy. All eyes will certainly be on Powell and the Fed's next decision on whether or not to raise rates. If the economy continues its slow growth pattern, with minimal inflation, there may not be reason for another rate hike by the Fed this year.

Data out this week from the Commerce Department shows a shockingly sharp decline in December retail sales with core retail sales showing their largest decline in nearly 20 years (-1.7 percent). Analysts expect that this was partially due to the government shutdown and lack of consumer confidence related to stock market issues affecting investments.

The Producer Price Index also declined last month, however, the core PPI was as expected.

The Consumer Price Index for January backs up the assumption of a slowed, but still strong US economy. January's CPI was unchanged with cheaper gasoline prices helping offset higher food and rent costs. The data from the US Labor Department showed the core CPI year-over-year rate has remained stable at 2.2 percent.

Jobless claims were also higher than expected for the week ending Feb. 2. However, it's believed that most of that has to do with seasonal turnover and should correct itself by spring.

Tax law frustrates filers 

As we roll into the thick of tax season, there is a lot of angry chatter concerning tax returns, or lack thereof. This year the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act went into effect. Part of that tax change affected the withholding tables.

If people did not change their withholding to coincide with that change, it's possible they were getting too much money in their paycheck which means paying more to the government in taxes come April. That shock of a lower tax refund, without understanding they were paid more in each paycheck over the course of the year, has resulted in a lot of angry Americans.

You should keep in mind that we are very early in the tax season, a full two months away from the April 15 deadline. Therefore the pool of filers is small. Traditionally, the early filers are also single filers and not necessarily the families who are supposed to benefit the most from the child tax credits and increased standard deduction level.

Rates still low, but applications slide

Mortgage rates are sitting around a 12-month low right now and yet mortgage applications are also on the decline. For the week ending Feb. 14, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.37 percent, down from 4.41 percent the week before.

The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that applications for 30-year fixed mortgages were down 3.7 percent from the week before.

MBA Vice President Joel Kan believes it has to do with economic uncertainty but is optimistic about the coming spring buying season. "Despite the recent decline in applications, we still expect that the continued strength of the job market and lower rates will support more purchase activity in the coming months."

Other analysts believe that Americans are simply waiting to see what turn the economy takes, especially with the possibility of another government shutdown and the prolonged trade dispute with China.

With just a few weeks left in the trade truce between the United States and China, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping today. Talks are reportedly going well as the US and China seek to create a trade agreement. That good news was encouraged by a report that the US is considering giving China an extra 60 days before raising tariffs.

Coincidentally, it's the slowing global economic growth that has helped allow for lower mortgage rates. Now that there is potential for a trade deal and a deal to fund the US government, rates may start to increase in the coming months.