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Kieron O'Grady

Senior Loan Officer
Movement Mortgage
NMLS ID # 282787
23 B Shelter Cove Ln, Ste 100, Hilton Head, SC 29926
Dial Phone Number
p: (843) 298-0752
o: (843) 781-7158
f: (843) 574-8318
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e: kieron.ogrady@movement.com

Fed Rate Cuts on the Horizon: Labor Market Signals a Shift

By: Movement Staff
September 6, 2024
Financial markets are closely scrutinizing each economic release for clues about the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut in September. With inflation seemingly on track towards the 2% target, the Fed's attention has shifted primarily to the labor market. This morning's August payroll report came in slightly below expectations, with July's figures also revised downward. However, wage growth and hours worked in August exceeded forecasts. 

While the labor market is showing signs of cooling, it’s not declining as sharply as some had feared. The key questions now are whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September and what rate they consider to be neutral. Despite recent data not fully supporting it, the bond market still assigns a 37.5%* probability to a 50 basis point cut.

*per Bloomberg’s World Interest Rate Probability calculations
Author: Movement Staff

The Market Update is a weekly commentary compiled by a group of Movement Mortgage capital markets analysts with decades of combined expertise in the financial field. Movement's staff helps take complicated economic topics and turn them into a useful, easy to understand analysis to help you make the best decisions for your financial future.

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Kieron O'Grady
Senior Loan Officer
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23 B Shelter Cove Ln, Ste 100, Hilton Head, SC 29926
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NMLS # 282787

State License #SC-BFI-MLO - 282787