A Fed Rate Cut, the Election and More
By: Movement Team
November 8, 2024
This week featured the election, a Federal Reserve Meeting, a Federal Reserve rate cut, bond market movement and more. However, average mortgage rates remain similar to last week, per Optimal Blue’s indices.
The bond market is processing the implications of a potential Republican sweep in Washington. President-elect Trump's promises of tax cuts, higher tariffs and reduced immigration initially drove a sharp rise in rates on Wednesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield nearing 4.50%. However, this momentum has softened, with yields now around 4.30%. Encouragingly, despite the assumption on Wednesday that Republicans would likely control both chambers of Congress, yields held below the 4.50% level.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate cut yesterday, which was widely anticipated. According to USA Today, some analysts believe that consumers may not feel the impact of this small cut. As a reminder, the Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage interest rates–its policies influence them. And when such a cut is widely anticipated that can mean that markets have already priced it into mortgage rates. The bond market currently prices in a 64% probability of another 25-basis-point cut in December.
All in all, markets are still processing current economic data and uncertainty of future policies may be. Aggregate average mortgage rate movement over the past week has been minimal, according to Optimal Blue’s data. Optimal Blue’s market index for a 30-year conforming over the last week:
Looking back at October, Curinos reports a 50% year over year increase and 15% month over month in funded mortgage volume. Refinances decreased 38% in October according to Curinos.
The bond market is processing the implications of a potential Republican sweep in Washington. President-elect Trump's promises of tax cuts, higher tariffs and reduced immigration initially drove a sharp rise in rates on Wednesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield nearing 4.50%. However, this momentum has softened, with yields now around 4.30%. Encouragingly, despite the assumption on Wednesday that Republicans would likely control both chambers of Congress, yields held below the 4.50% level.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate cut yesterday, which was widely anticipated. According to USA Today, some analysts believe that consumers may not feel the impact of this small cut. As a reminder, the Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage interest rates–its policies influence them. And when such a cut is widely anticipated that can mean that markets have already priced it into mortgage rates. The bond market currently prices in a 64% probability of another 25-basis-point cut in December.
All in all, markets are still processing current economic data and uncertainty of future policies may be. Aggregate average mortgage rate movement over the past week has been minimal, according to Optimal Blue’s data. Optimal Blue’s market index for a 30-year conforming over the last week:
- October 31, 2024: 6.786%
- November 7, 2024: 6.760%
Looking back at October, Curinos reports a 50% year over year increase and 15% month over month in funded mortgage volume. Refinances decreased 38% in October according to Curinos.
