Data Shows the Housing Market Has a Spring in Its Step
By: Movement Team
May 6, 2026
A month ago, the housing market was dealing with a lot of uncertainty. Rates had jumped sharply after the U.S. launched military operations in Iran, oil prices were climbing, and buyers who had been ready to move were suddenly hesitant again.
A lot has changed since then.
Rates have pulled back from their March peak. Inventory is rising in markets that have been tight for years. And buyers, rather than waiting for perfect conditions, are moving forward. The data from the past few weeks tells a more encouraging story than the headlines might suggest.
After climbing sharply in March, the 30-year fixed rate has pulled back. As of April 23, the average 30-year fixed rate sat at 6.23%, down from 6.81% at this same time last year. As Freddie Mac's chief economist Sam Khater put it: "Rates currently stand at their lowest level in the last three spring homebuying seasons. This improvement, coupled with a pickup in purchase applications and refinance activity, as well as an increase in monthly pending home sales, underscores signs of improving momentum in the market." By April 30, purchase applications had risen to more than 20% above where they were a year ago. (Freddie Mac)
Buyers are responding to even modest rate improvements, and the data makes that clear.
Five housing and mortgage professionals weighed in on where rates are headed in May, and while no one is predicting a dramatic drop, the general direction is cautiously optimistic. The key variable remains the situation in Iran. If tensions continue to de-escalate, oil prices could ease, inflation expectations could cool, and bond yields could fall further. Stephen Kates of Bankrate expects 30-year rates to fall to approximately 6.15% if Middle East tensions continue to ease. If the conflict escalates or new inflation data comes in hot, the reverse could happen. (MarketWatch).
The honest answer on timing is the same as it was a month ago: rates are hard to predict in calm conditions, and harder still when geopolitical events are in play. What has shifted is that the direction of travel, for now, is more favorable than it was in March. There are currently 600,000 more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market. (MarketWatch) For buyers who can afford to move, that creates real negotiating leverage in many markets. As one pro put it, if you find a home that fits your needs and budget, there is little reason to delay.
One of the more significant developments this spring is what's happening with inventory, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest.
Nationally, nearly 480,000 homes were brought to market in April, up 8.7% month over month, marking the strongest April for fresh inventory since 2022. The surge was especially pronounced in markets that have been starved of supply for years. In the Northeast, new listings rose 28% from March and 9.4% from a year ago. The Midwest followed closely, with new listings growing 19% month over month and 6.6% year over year. (Realtor.com)
More listings don't automatically mean easier conditions, but they do mean more options and potentially more negotiating room than buyers in those markets have had in a long time.
One of the reasons inventory has been so constrained over the past few years is what economists call the lock-in effect. Homeowners who secured rates below 3% or 4% during the pandemic era have been reluctant to sell, because doing so would mean taking on a new mortgage at a much higher rate. That dynamic is starting to shift.
Despite ongoing rate volatility through March and April, rates are still at their lowest April levels since 2023. That, combined with substantial equity growth in markets like the Northeast and Midwest where years of home price appreciation have left homeowners with meaningful capital gains, is helping more sellers come off the sidelines. Life circumstances, growing families, job changes, and relocations are beginning to outweigh the financial penalty of giving up a low rate. (Realtor.com)
A lot has changed since then.
Rates have pulled back from their March peak. Inventory is rising in markets that have been tight for years. And buyers, rather than waiting for perfect conditions, are moving forward. The data from the past few weeks tells a more encouraging story than the headlines might suggest.
Rates Are at Their Lowest Point in Three Spring Seasons
After climbing sharply in March, the 30-year fixed rate has pulled back. As of April 23, the average 30-year fixed rate sat at 6.23%, down from 6.81% at this same time last year. As Freddie Mac's chief economist Sam Khater put it: "Rates currently stand at their lowest level in the last three spring homebuying seasons. This improvement, coupled with a pickup in purchase applications and refinance activity, as well as an increase in monthly pending home sales, underscores signs of improving momentum in the market." By April 30, purchase applications had risen to more than 20% above where they were a year ago. (Freddie Mac)
Buyers are responding to even modest rate improvements, and the data makes that clear.
Where Rates Go From Here
Five housing and mortgage professionals weighed in on where rates are headed in May, and while no one is predicting a dramatic drop, the general direction is cautiously optimistic. The key variable remains the situation in Iran. If tensions continue to de-escalate, oil prices could ease, inflation expectations could cool, and bond yields could fall further. Stephen Kates of Bankrate expects 30-year rates to fall to approximately 6.15% if Middle East tensions continue to ease. If the conflict escalates or new inflation data comes in hot, the reverse could happen. (MarketWatch).
The honest answer on timing is the same as it was a month ago: rates are hard to predict in calm conditions, and harder still when geopolitical events are in play. What has shifted is that the direction of travel, for now, is more favorable than it was in March. There are currently 600,000 more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market. (MarketWatch) For buyers who can afford to move, that creates real negotiating leverage in many markets. As one pro put it, if you find a home that fits your needs and budget, there is little reason to delay.
Inventory Is Finally Moving in Markets That Needed It
One of the more significant developments this spring is what's happening with inventory, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest.
Nationally, nearly 480,000 homes were brought to market in April, up 8.7% month over month, marking the strongest April for fresh inventory since 2022. The surge was especially pronounced in markets that have been starved of supply for years. In the Northeast, new listings rose 28% from March and 9.4% from a year ago. The Midwest followed closely, with new listings growing 19% month over month and 6.6% year over year. (Realtor.com)
More listings don't automatically mean easier conditions, but they do mean more options and potentially more negotiating room than buyers in those markets have had in a long time.
The Lock-In Effect Is Starting to Loosen
One of the reasons inventory has been so constrained over the past few years is what economists call the lock-in effect. Homeowners who secured rates below 3% or 4% during the pandemic era have been reluctant to sell, because doing so would mean taking on a new mortgage at a much higher rate. That dynamic is starting to shift.
Despite ongoing rate volatility through March and April, rates are still at their lowest April levels since 2023. That, combined with substantial equity growth in markets like the Northeast and Midwest where years of home price appreciation have left homeowners with meaningful capital gains, is helping more sellers come off the sidelines. Life circumstances, growing families, job changes, and relocations are beginning to outweigh the financial penalty of giving up a low rate. (Realtor.com)
What This Means for the Rest of Spring
The spring market of 2026 is shaping up to be more active than 2025, but it isn't without its complications. 30-year fixed mortgage rates are better than they've been in three spring seasons, but as of May 5 they're still above 6%. (Freddie Mac) Inventory is improving, but not uniformly. Economic uncertainty hasn't disappeared, it's just quieted down from its March peak.
What the data suggests is that for buyers who have been waiting for a better moment, this spring is offering one. Not a perfect moment, but a meaningfully better one than last year. Rates could go lower from here, but they could also move back up if global conditions shift again.
The buyers who tend to navigate markets like this best are the ones who are informed, prepared, and working with people who can help them move quickly when the right opportunity appears.
If you want to talk through what the current rate environment means for your specific situation, reach out and we can take a look at the numbers together.
