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Brad Ellett

Brad Ellett

Branch Leader
Movement Mortgage
NMLS ID # 1634528
205 W Western Ave Suite 107 & 108, South Bend, IN 46601
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It's all about those jobs, 'bout those jobs, no trouble

By: Movement Staff
September 2, 2016

Ho-hum. That's probably the best way to classify Friday's August nonfarm payrolls report. The U.S. economy created 151,000 new jobs in August, falling short of the 180,000 new jobs Wall Street expected. The unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent.

Now, all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve in three weeks when it will decide whether to raise benchmark interest rates or stand pat. The Fed hasn't raised rates since December 2015. While Fed Chair Janet Yellen has hinted a rate hike is possible before the end of 2016, the lower-than-expected jobs number won't prompt her to speed up plans. I still think a rate hike is a low probability in September.

While August tends to be a slow month for job creation, and 151,000 net new jobs isn't a horrible number, there were several things inside the report that caused concern. The economy lost 14,000 manufacturing jobs in August, and year-over-year wage growth decreased to 2.4 percent. One analyst this morning called it a "blah" report, and I think that's a pretty good way to sum it up.

Still, it's fitting that we have a fresh jobs report as we head into the Labor Day weekend. The American workforce has been for decades one of the most impressive and productive forces on the planet. That's why these monthly reports are so critical to understanding the health of our economy. As the American worker goes, so goes the U.S. economy.

Here's some helpful info on understanding this monthly checkup.

First, we'll focus on two comprehensive segments of the report that point to overall economic vitality — the establishment survey and the household survey. From these sets of data, analysts and observers get the bulk of the information that powers economic forecasts and gives stock and bond traders an idea of whether market conditions justify investment.

We'll look at each and explain how they provide a clear picture of U.S. job growth.

The magnificent seven

Around the Office_NT-27

Let's dig into the establishment survey, a voluminous amount of data that collects employment information from some 400,000 firms across the nation. The metrics detail the net value of job losses or gains in the economy, and then compares them with last year's numbers. The result: A barometer on the overall health of the labor market, apart from natural disasters or other catastrophic events that could affect production.

The survey crunches employment figures across seven key sectors of the economy. The sectors include:

  • Construction: Since much fixed investment comes in the way of construction — and reflects the confidence and expectations of managers and business owners — the vigor (or lack thereof) in this sector reflects the economy's overall health.
  • Manufacturing: Payroll data from this sector includes mining, machinery, motor vehicle parts and other U.S. goods-producing industries.
  • Retail: This sector caters directly to the consumer. Its hiring and layoff policies are paramount to understanding economic well-being due to its size and significance.
  • Professional and business services: This group of data is hailed as a good forward indicator on the labor market because it gives the most insight into the temporary help business. Why is that important? In the uncertain period leading to a recession or recovery, businesses often hire temporary workers instead of creating permanent positions.
  • Transportation and warehousing: This sector includes truckers, drivers, managers and other types of laborers working in similar industries. It's a lagging indicator on the jobs market, which means it only begins to change after the economy has already started following a specific pattern or trend. It's one of the first sectors to feel the effect of a recovery or recession.
  • Financial services: Generally considered reactionary to market trends, this part of the report covers employment changes at banks, mutual funds, credit unions, financial publishing firms and the like.
  • Health care: This part of the survey covers the firings and hirings of doctors, nurses and other medical professionals. It's considered recession-proof since people will always have to pay for health care.
  • The others: The report also examines employment status in the leisure and hospitality industry, and government sector.
Who's working, who's not?

The household survey tells us the number of unemployed people in the economy, along with the national unemployment rate and other demographic data. What's most compelling is that it measures the rate of turnover in the labor market.

For instance, if layoffs and hirings move at equal speed, a large number of the unemployed can be absorbed into the payrolls of U.S. businesses over the long term since it's thought they will become part of the active workforce over time. But if the number of unemployed workers goes up, the newly unemployed will join a queue of workers actively seeking jobs over a long period of time with no positive results.

Speaking of unemployment…

Also highlighted in the jobs report is the national unemployment rate, an important gauge of recessions and recoveries that tends to dominate headlines.

An unemployment rate below 5 percent is regarded as a sign of a healthy economy. A rate above 6 percent shows signs of a sluggish labor market, and that employers have the advantage in setting wages due to job scarcity.

Despite all the attention it receives, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of overall economic activity. The rate will peak sometime into a recovery, making it tricky to use as a tool for predicting the future health of the economy.

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How valuable is it?

The jobs report has its flaws. It's subject to countless revisions, seasonal adjustments and historic errors on the part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But its value as one of the best indicators of the economy's health should not be undervalued, either.

Along with economists and academics, the Federal Reserve closely scrutinizes the data, using it to inform interest rate decisions. And unlike some surveys that take a piecemeal approach to sorting labor data, the jobs report's sample size is large, giving us a mass of information with less volatility and more reliability.

Happy Labor Day!

Author: Movement Staff

The Market Update is a weekly commentary compiled by a group of Movement Mortgage capital markets analysts with decades of combined expertise in the financial field. Movement's staff helps take complicated economic topics and turn them into a useful, easy to understand analysis to help you make the best decisions for your financial future.

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Brad Ellett
Brad Ellett
Branch Leader
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