Further Rate Hikes Look Likely After Latest Economic Data

Economic fireworks continued following the long July 4th weekend, catching the eye of economists. On Wednesday, the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting reinforced the Fed's commitment to raising interest rates in the coming months. On Thursday, the ADP Employment report showed that the labor market remains strong, with 497,000 jobs added in June. 

As of this writing, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields have broken through 5% (closing in on a 2023 high) and 4% (the first time since March), respectively, on expectations of continued rate hikes. 

The major economic data point of the week is the Non-Farm Payrolls report. The data released this morning shows signs of easing employment growth. Non-farm payrolls increased 209,000 in June and the unemployment rate came in at 3.6 percent. This is a considerable drop from May’s revised total of 306,000. This is the slowest month for job creation since December 2020.